Polling Memorandum
2026 New York Governor
- To
- Interested Parties
- Re
- New York Statewide Model
- Date
- July 21, 2026
The electorate
The turnout model projects 5.9M likely voters — 44% of 13.5M registered. 79% of likely voters are more interested in this election than in previous ones, and interest is stronger on the GOP side: 73% of Republicans are much more interested vs. 44% of Democrats — a 29-point enthusiasm gap.
Nearly half of New York’s likely electorate — 47% — has no opinion of Bruce Blakeman, yet he is the only figure tested with net-positive favorability (+7). On the initial ballot, Hochul leads 47–43, though 57% say things are on the wrong track and just 33% say the incumbent deserves re-election.
-
57%
Wrong track
33% right direction
-
−28%
Re-elect, net
61% say someone else
-
47%
No opinion of Blakeman
30 fav / 23 unfav — net +7
-
47–43
Initial ballot
Hochul +4%
Favorability
Blakeman stands at 30% favorable / 23% unfavorable (+7%) — the only major figure tested in net-positive territory (Hochul −20%, Mamdani −7%) — while 47% of likely voters have never heard of him or have no opinion.
Hochul’s favorability sits at 38% favorable / 58% unfavorable (−20%), job approval at 39/56.
The ballot
Hochul opens at 47–43 (Hochul +4%) with 10% undecided. Blakeman already leads independents 54%–33%, holds Republicans 83–10, and runs strongest in the suburbs (51%).
The environment favors a challenger: just 33% say New York is headed in the right direction vs. 57% wrong track (net −24), and only 33% say Hochul deserves re-election while 61% say it is time to give someone else a chance.
Top issues
Cost of living/inflation (58%) and economy/jobs/taxes (53%) dominate top-three issue rankings, with crime/public safety at 34%. 57% blame politicians for the cost of living vs. 35% who blame corporations (+22%). On personal finances, 43% say they are worse off than a year ago; only 15% are better off.
Methodology
Red Oak Strategic surveyed 2,000 registered New York voters July 7–12, 2026, via live cell phone (50%), landline (20%), and text-to-online (30%). Respondents were matched to the New York voter file; results are weighted to the demographic profile of the electorate and projected to the modeled 2026 likely-voter universe (13,515,880 registered voters scored). Margin of error ±2.2 points at the 95% confidence level; larger for subgroups.
